Cash diesel was posted at 249.9 cents a litre at the Shell station at Dixie and Britannia in Mississauga on the afternoon of Sunday, September 13, 2026. The Flying J truck stop next door showed 259.9. When the Iran conflict began in late February 2026, the Canadian diesel index stood under $1.50, according to a March 11 Bison Transport customer advisory.
Fleets on a fuel card pay less than the posted price, but the direction is the same. Fuel card accounts of a couple of GTA carriers running eight to ten trucks each, reviewed by TruckNmore, show them paying around $1.48 a litre at GTA cardlocks in February 2026 and around $2.25 in the first two weeks of September. A fleet that had a $10,000 weekly fuel bill in February is paying about $15,000 now for the same litres.
So what about freight rates? ACT Research's mid-2026 Canada tracker described domestic spot rates as mixed, with intra-Canada dry van pricing softened from recent highs. Whatever firmness exists, it said, comes from a smaller tractor fleet and tight driver supply, not from freight demand.
Demand is the problem. Cross-border volumes have not recovered from the tariff disruption that started in late 2025. C.H. Robinson's January 2026 update said carriers reported near-zero freight growth in 2025 and called it a warning sign that closures could follow. Its cross-border analysis said slower retail restocking and subdued manufacturing kept volumes muted while capacity stayed readily available.
Large carriers on contract freight are covered. Their contracts carry a fuel surcharge indexed to the Natural Resources Canada weekly diesel survey. It lags a week or two, but it moves with the pump.
Small carriers and owner-operators on brokered spot loads have no such line. A spot rate is a flat, all-in number. When diesel moves 75 cents a litre between February and September 2026, the load still pays what it paid. Reefer operators feel it most. The unit runs whether the truck is moving or not.
So the operator with one to ten trucks is caught twice. Fewer loads to bid on because of tariffs, and every load now burning diesel the rate never accounted for. Many of these carriers took on equipment payments in 2022 and 2023 when rates were high.
The next several NRCan weekly readings will show whether the September 2026 price holds. Refinery maintenance and the switch to winter diesel usually add pressure through October.
The Dixie Road pumps say $2.50 and $2.60 cash. The rate confirmations most small carriers received this week still price freight like diesel is a buck fifty.
