Canadian truck capacity could get tight earlier than usual this winter, freight broker Arrive Logistics says.

In its October freight market update, the firm said many foreign drivers take extended time off from late November through February. That comes as Canadian capacity is already near a cycle bottom, according to the report.

Fewer trucks on the road

The Canadian tractor count was down 3.0 per cent year over year in October, according to ACT Research figures cited in the report. ACT expects a full-year decline of about 2.6 per cent for 2026.

Outbound tender rejections, the share of loads carriers turn down, were about 5 per cent in early October. Arrive said that is higher than in recent years and above third-quarter levels.

ACT analysts quoted in the report said Canadian demand is stronger while equipment is shrinking. They said capacity is still more balanced than in the United States, so the effect on rates should be more limited.

Rates split by direction

The cross-border market is moving in two directions.

Northbound demand is fading as tariffs cut demand for U.S. goods, Arrive said. Northbound spot rates fell in September.

Southbound rates rose and are up 20 per cent from a year ago. Carriers that expect a weak rate on the return trip are asking for more on the way south, the report said. High fuel costs add to that pressure.

Load volumes are up. Canadian spot volumes rose 2 per cent from August to September, according to Loadlink data in the report. Cross-border loads made up 61 per cent of postings.

Diesel and the outlook

Canadian diesel hit a record $2.74 a litre in September and stayed near that level into mid-October, the report said.

Prices have since started to ease. GTA diesel fell 11 cents a litre on November 4, and analyst Dan McTeague of Canadians for Affordable Energy expects it to reach about 234.9 cents by Friday. He said that is still about 80 cents a litre higher than a year ago.

Arrive expects weak northbound demand and higher, more volatile southbound pricing to continue. It said cross-border rates could rise into 2027 as U.S. driver supply tightens and diesel stays high. Northbound rates should stay below U.S. levels, the firm said.

The annual review of CUSMA adds to the uncertainty, the report noted.

Sources: Arrive Logistics, October 2026 Freight Market Update, citing Loadlink and ACT Research; CP24, November 4, 2026.